In response to recent U.S. trade policies, China has increased its purchases of Russian crude oil, snapping up shipments that would usually be destined for Indian refineries. This change follows a decline in India’s demand for Russian oil, largely driven by tariffs introduced under U.S. President Donald Trump.
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, global energy supplies have shifted dramatically. As Western nations imposed sanctions and embargoes on Russian exports, China and India became key buyers helping Moscow sustain its oil sales. However, the situation is evolving as the U.S. intensifies efforts to restrict Russia’s energy revenues.
In July 2025, Trump announced plans to impose secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian crude, in an attempt to pressure Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. He also raised tariffs on Indian goods entering the U.S. by an additional 25%, adding to a pre-existing 25% levy. This action has caused India to sharply reduce its imports of Russian oil.
Analysis from commodities experts shows that Chinese refiners have secured at least 15 shipments of Russian crude scheduled for delivery in October and November. According to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler—a company specialising in commodities and shipping data—these shipments, each generally containing between 700,000 and one million barrels, will be loaded from Russia’s Arctic and Black Sea ports, regions typically supplying India due to proximity.
“As for whether China will continue buying, I personally believe that right now is still a very good opportunity, because over in India, Trump is still pressing hard on them,” Xu stated.
The pricing advantage also plays a crucial role, with Russian oil priced at least $3 per barrel cheaper than competing Middle Eastern alternatives, making it an appealing choice amid volatile global oil markets.
After his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump indicated to Fox News that he was not immediately considering retaliatory tariffs on China for its Russian oil purchases but left open the possibility of doing so “in two weeks or three weeks.”
Referring to Chinese refiners, Xu added, “Taking advantage of this opportunity while prices are low, I think more refineries will probably consider buying more, within a week or two.”
To put the magnitude into perspective, India imported roughly $53 billion worth of Russian petroleum products in 2024, making up over a third of its crude oil intake and positioning Russia as its leading crude supplier, according to United Nations trade data and energy analytics firm Vortexa. China, meanwhile, imported approximately $62.6 billion worth of Russian oil the same year, accounting for around 13.5% of its total crude imports.
Despite China’s efforts to fill the gap, Xu emphasised that it is unlikely Beijing can fully offset the reduction in India’s Russian oil consumption.
“If India keeps holding off on buying, that’s going to be a real problem for Russia—China just can’t take on all of India’s volume by itself,” she added.
India currently imports about 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil, whereas China’s seaborne Russian crude imports stand at around 1.2 million barrels daily.