Auckland’s business community faces an uncertain path forward, with new data showing an almost even split: 40% of employers are holding off on hiring, while 38% are moving ahead with recruitment over the next 12 months.
Negative Sentiment Persists as Revenue Outlook Deteriorates
Business confidence continues to erode, with 44% of employers now reporting negative sentiment which is unchanged from the previous figure, hinting at a potential plateau. Meanwhile, expectations for stagnant or declining revenue have risen, climbing from 46% in earlier reports.
Confidence Slips as Economic Outlook Darkens
The survey points to deepening pessimism about New Zealand’s broader economic direction. Only 38% of employers believe the economy will improve over the next year, a drop from 44%. That decrease in optimism arrives at a critical time, with Budget 2025 just days away.
Simon Bridges, CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber, attributes some of the anxiety to global economic tensions, particularly developments in U.S. trade policy. “Some of that is the ‘Trump effect,’ with geopolitics continuing to rise as a top concern. But with less than a week until Budget 2025, domestic settings also assume huge significance,” said Bridges.
Geopolitical Risks Climb the Business Agenda
International trade and geopolitical instability are rapidly rising on employers’ radars. The share of businesses citing these as major concerns has jumped to 42%, up sharply from 27% in the previous survey.
The “Trump effect,” particularly the former U.S. president’s 10% tariffs, is believed to be contributing to the unease. The potential ripple effects on trade and supply chains are becoming harder for businesses to ignore, especially for import-heavy industries operating in a small, open economy like New Zealand’s.
Budget 2025 Carries Elevated Expectations from Business Leaders
The spotlight is now on Budget 2025, with businesses waiting to see how the government will act on its economic growth agenda. The “Going for Growth” strategy sets out goals around innovation and capacity-building, but many employers remain unconvinced. “Whether this is tax or regulatory relief, or some other policy silver linings, will be Finance Minister Willis’ prerogative. But one thing is for sure: light at the end of the tunnel is essential,” said Bridges.
“Auckland employers will need some ‘serious evidence’ of this agenda from the government,” he said.
Auckland’s business community stands divided, with hiring plans split and confidence wavering ahead of Budget 2025. The near-even split between employers looking to grow and those holding back highlights deepening uncertainty in both local and global economic conditions.